<This was written a year back or so.. but I never remembered to push the publish button>
Let’s take a more near term view of Google’s vision first which is around organizing information and making it accessible.
Near-term
Google's main monetization model today is digital advertising. Between overall advertising market growth and digital advertising taking share from traditional media, there is plenty of headroom for Google to grow. Google’s digital advertising dominance needs eyeballs. You get eyeballs at the gate (entry point) or while people are engaging with the content (engagement point) ) once they get to it.
If I get my information from outside of Google search like social networks or from other mechanisms like on mobile devices, then Google can be challenged for the eyeballs at the gate. From an content (engagement point) perspective if people are engaging in social networks or watching content in places other than google properties like Youtube there is threat to that revenue.
If I get my information from outside of Google search like social networks or from other mechanisms like on mobile devices, then Google can be challenged for the eyeballs at the gate. From an content (engagement point) perspective if people are engaging in social networks or watching content in places other than google properties like Youtube there is threat to that revenue.
So clearly Google needs to stay as the gatekeeper to the information access and needs to become the content hub of the future. Simple enough.
Android, Nest & DropCam and other "Internet of Things" plays are ways of owning device platforms of the future so that Google can continue to play the gatekeeper role. From an owning the engagement experience perspective - Youtube, Social Networks, Messaging, TV (Chromecast) apps are an obvious places to tap into.
But in terms of total opportunity, from what I have heard, an average person spends 4 hours on TV daily and 48 minutes on Facebook which leaves 19 hours of the day still available to engage the users and potentially in very productive and meaningful ways.
Cars are a great place to engage users, Family time is a great opportunity. How google can enrich the time i spend with my kids must be something Google is considering. How Google can enrich my vacation by engaging me more deeply while I am sipping Pina Colada in Hawaii? Flying is a crappy experience today and offers a great opportunity for engagement. How Google can engage users at work (8 hours out of 16 hours of awake time) gives a completely new perspective to what Enterprise/Business market means for Google. It is just a share of time. Google has arguably captured a tiny fraction of 24 hour day so far and they have lots of room to grow.
But in terms of total opportunity, from what I have heard, an average person spends 4 hours on TV daily and 48 minutes on Facebook which leaves 19 hours of the day still available to engage the users and potentially in very productive and meaningful ways.
Cars are a great place to engage users, Family time is a great opportunity. How google can enrich the time i spend with my kids must be something Google is considering. How Google can enrich my vacation by engaging me more deeply while I am sipping Pina Colada in Hawaii? Flying is a crappy experience today and offers a great opportunity for engagement. How Google can engage users at work (8 hours out of 16 hours of awake time) gives a completely new perspective to what Enterprise/Business market means for Google. It is just a share of time. Google has arguably captured a tiny fraction of 24 hour day so far and they have lots of room to grow.
Long-term
The long-term brings even more promise to what Google can do with its burgeoning cash reserves and an abundance of digital expertise - both human and infrastructure.
If you look at all the big problems that need to be solved in the world and work with the assumption that companies that solve big problems will create and capture incredible value, Google's future looks even more bright. Healthcare, as an example offers, opportunities that include Affordable Healthcare, Higher Quality healthcare, cures to incurable diseases. Arguably most big problems and their solutions now depend more on processing bits than atoms and google has a huge advantage on that front. Moonshots are a great strategy of taking google vision of making information useful and not just accessible. In meeting this larger vision, Google will go beyond its advertising driven business model. So I think the best days go Google are ahead of it.
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